GRADE

Presentation

This study presents the results of a pilot test of three data collection instruments for measuring the rate of illegality or smuggling: a survey of smokers about their consumption patterns, the collection of packs discarded by smokers on the street, and the exchange of discarded packs by two types of retailers: bodegas and street vendors. The conclusion regarding the validity of the piloted instruments is that inspection of packs collected from the street or exchanges with street vendors are promising strategies for a relatively low-cost measure of the illegality rate, which may make it feasible to continuously monitor the response of smuggling to an increase in the tax burden on cigarette packs. This is in contrast to strategies based on the inclusion of a pack inspection component in surveys of smokers, or on the proposed exchange with bodegueros, which face much more serious biases due to negative perceptions regarding smoking or the sale of contraband cigarettes. This study combines the information collected with these pilots to estimate the rate of illegality in cigarette consumption in Peru. With the proposed methodology, we estimate a smuggling rate of 13%, which is driven by heavy smokers, and through the street trade. The other important result is that the survey of smokers allows us to show that the problem of cigarette consumption control in Peru also includes the continued commercialization of loose cigarettes, despite their express prohibition, which appears to be particularly relevant for young people, and seems to be made viable by the scarce control of the main agents of retail commercialization: street vendors, kiosks and warehouses.

Document related to the project:

Valdivia, M. & Gutiérrez, M.C.(2021). Estimando el consumo ilícito de cigarrillos en el Perú. Lima: GRADE

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